If you rely on Social Security, here is some news worth tracking. A forecast from The Senior Citizens League predicts that your cost-of-living adjustment in 2027 will be 3.8%, a full percentage point higher than the 2.8% raise that took effect in 2026.
In dollar terms, that would add roughly $73.62 a month to the average benefit, pushing it from $1,937.53 to $2,011.15.
Why the Bigger Bump?
The short answer is inflation. Prices were up 3.5% from a year ago in June, according to the latest consumer price index data. That is well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
The version of the inflation measure used to calculate Social Security’s annual adjustment, called the CPI-W, also came in at 3.5% for June.
By law, the Social Security Administration calculates the COLA using CPI-W data from July, August, and September each year. The official announcement typically comes in mid-October.
This month’s 3.8% projection matches last month’s estimate. It is slightly lower than the 3.9% forecast made back in April.
The Real Squeeze Seniors Are Feeling
Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizens League, did not mince words about what rising inflation means for people living on fixed incomes.
“We’re seeing inflation on the rise when more than half of seniors already can’t afford basic living standards. We’re talking about food, a roof over their head, and transportation. Many seniors already have to skip doctor’s appointments due to costs, which costs all of us more in the long run when we swap preventative care for emergency care.”
A higher COLA helps. But it does not solve everything and it comes with a catch
A Bigger COLA Also Strains the System
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated in May that a 3.8% adjustment in 2027 would worsen Social Security’s long-term funding gap by about $300 billion over the next decade.
It would also move up the projected insolvency of a key Social Security trust fund by three months, to late 2032 instead of early 2033.
If that trust fund runs dry, the law currently requires the Social Security Administration to cut benefits to match incoming payroll tax revenue. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that cut could reach 25%, effectively wiping out almost a decade’s worth of COLA increases.
None of that is set in stone. Congress could act before then. But it is worth keeping an eye on as you plan ahead.
For now, the official 2027 COLA number will not be known until October, when the final summer inflation data comes in.
